A reminder of self deception – Theranos outcome

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OxCO5EUYOqw

The most effective social engineering and discovering what the other party wants to believe, that they will overcome their own reasoning. 

Its not bad to be critical of claims. 

the Opportunity loss? Really? what is the financial performance of the stock market if one invested stocks vs savings vs converting a resource to a product/service to sell?  

I’m skeptical and I’m surprised my view of making additional income is considered “Traditional and Boring”. Side work/projects/arbitrage is not bad. Does X work get paid for X work on the side? Or Do X work and meet some people to understand the market better. 

One of the key concepts in the Philosophical Razors and mastering  Objections/Arguments/Biases/Fallacies is that 90% of the problem is in our biases and weak areas (its in what we want to believe vs reality). There is almost always enough data with basic diligence (benchmarks, context, and organizing the data to be reasonable). 

Of course, having less capital and extra time and resource sucks. Its % increase over time. But the distraction of faulty data and claims is the greatest loss of productivity in the long run. 

I’m sure every minmaxer can do this in their sleep. Opportunity cost and Branching Tree Diagrams of options and total Cost of Ownership. Then apply an overlay of Probability to all the branching paths. 

Our intelligence and ability determine a particularly predictable path – where agency comes in is how we step out of our patterns and optimize a decision. We know what we are going to do, and the ability to change it because we KNOW what’s going to happen. 

 

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