As the publisher behind Game in the Brain, I often reflect on how niche the tabletop role-playing game (TRPG) market truly is and what that means for pricing and product expectations. Many creators blame customers when their games underperform, but in reality, a solid Value-Based Pricing (VBP) strategy should have accounted for these outcomes from the beginning.
Understanding Value-Based Pricing (VBP)
VBP is a pricing strategy that sets a product’s price based on its perceived value to the customer rather than on production costs alone. This is especially crucial in niche markets like TRPGs, where the potential customer base is limited. When a game performs poorly, the issue is often not with the customers but rather with how well the product design and pricing strategy align with the actual demand.
To illustrate this, let’s analyze just how small our audience really is.
Breaking Down the Niche Size
To put things into perspective, let’s compare TRPGs to the broader publishing and gaming industries:
Market Size Comparison
- Book Publishing Industry: ~$150 billion
- Video Game Industry: ~$184 billion
- TRPG Industry: ~$1.7 billion (roughly 1/100th the size of book publishing)
If we assume that 1,000,000 hobbyists engage in books, only 10,000 may engage in TRPGs (~1%).
Further Specialization in TRPGs
- Sci-Fi RPGs: ~10% of the TRPG industry (~1,000 people)
- Traveller & Cepheus Engine (Sub-niche within Sci-Fi): ~40% (~400 people)
- Hard Sci-Fi and World Building (Super niche audience): ~1% of Traveller/Cepheus fans (~4 people)
Conclusion: My niche audience is extremely small. Therefore, revenue expectations must align accordingly.
Real-World Sales Data: Mneme Products
To validate these assumptions, I analyzed the sales performance of my own titles.
Mneme Space Combat (Pay What You Want – PWYW)
- 280 page visits
- 108 downloads
- 10 people actually paid for it
Mneme World Generator
- 4,000 page visits
- 134 sales
- 89 people added it to their wishlist (potential future conversions when I launch the app)
Mneme Space Combat (Non-Free Version)
- 1,223 page visits
- 32 wish list entries
- 26 actual purchases
Projected Sales Conversion:
- Mneme Space Combat (including shipbuilding tools): ~$192 potential revenue
- Mneme World Generator (with planned app integration): ~$225 potential revenue
Total estimated earnings from the niche market: ~$400 maximum.
Strategic Takeaways: Managing Expectations in a Niche Market
- Budget Realistically: My spending (including marketing and product development) must reflect the realistic revenue ceiling of ~$400 (minus Drive thru RPG cut bringing it down to 260usd.
- Understand the Target Market: Given the tiny audience, it’s essential to maximize engagement and conversion rates rather than relying on mass appeal.
- Set Price Points Wisely: A one-size-fits-all approach doesn’t work in ultra-niche markets. Pricing must reflect the perceived value rather than production costs alone.
- Leverage Wishlist Conversions: Tracking wishlists and following up on interest with special offers, app launches, or discounts can maximize revenue.
Final Thoughts: The Importance of a Smart VBP Strategy
If a TRPG product underperforms, the problem isn’t the customer base—it’s the pricing and market strategy. Creators must factor in the actual size of their audience and align their budgets, expectations, and pricing strategies accordingly. For me, that means making every dollar count and ensuring that my Mneme line remains sustainable within its realistic market constraints.
Want to learn more about niche TRPG publishing? Follow my journey at Game in the Brain!
89 people have it wish listed. We hope to convert 50% of this once we make the React Table APP . That would be 45 people spending 5usd = 225 USD -35% = 146usd
If this works and people like our products – We can proceed with the MNEME Exploration Engine line of products. Where we use GODOT to visualize all of this. Nicco, Prynze, and I will make it that you can make your SPACE setting in 3D but export it into 2D for your VTT.
As mentioned the NICHE of Scifi is tiny and people are price sensitive. the kind of world where there exists enough people to 1300 copies for a set of tools that make world building easier is going to be unlikely.
If it sells 2500 copies because of the App and 3D godot tools – then there is FUNDING to make the 3D tools for the SHIPs and Space Stations.
BTW, in all my Calculations, I never get paid – it all goes to paying Nicco. (and later on Prynze)
26 people paid an average of 12 USD to check out our Space combat rules. I think we can convince the 32 on the wishlist to buy it once we release the APPs to make running the combat easier and able to generate random encounters or make actions for adversaries.
Unfortunately the potential earnings is only 16 x 12 = 192usd = 124.8 usd. I have to build an app to make space combat even easier and its technically more challenging.
sadly as an IT professional who makes roughly 24k USD a year in a developing country – the ability to make my dream job pay enough to pay the bills – even if my product is bought by developed country income earners. Also I cannot afford the instability. At least someone is getting paid to do this – its not me though. its my hobby to try to maintain the “Hopium” .
for this to be a fulltime job for Nicco and Prynze it needs to generate 10,400usd/year. That means New Features are SOLD to pay for the application Incrementally getting better. while allowing people to give it away since its Open source.
Which BTW is just publicity for them to be able to get a better deal and a more regular job so that I can repeat this all again to help another person get paid making games lolz.
I think the world is not what we wish it is. That those of us can just make a gamble in making it this way – for me making the transition to Harder Scifi more attractive with more tools and rules of thumb and AI. 90% of us fail. At least Share why it failed. Hopefully someone out there succeeds in making the product we want – for me I want to run harder scifi with tools that make it easier to run and prep. So that I can teach more about the world to those who care to know what I think.
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